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Stuff AI CAN'T Do

Can AI choose which cities to abandon as rising seas displace millions ?

What do you think?

As coastal flooding intensifies, planners face an urgent question: which cities should be abandoned to manage climate displacement? Algorithmic risk models are emerging to guide these decisions, raising concerns about transparency and equity.

Background

Urban planners and insurers are already using predictive models to assess climate risk. Advanced AI could soon assign existential priorities to populations based on economic value, infrastructure resilience, or political power. The current state of AI for selecting which cities to abandon due to sea-level rise remains limited to data-driven risk assessments rather than prescriptive abandonment decisions. Tools like flood-risk models and climate migration simulations (e.g., Coastal Vulnerability Index and NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer) project exposure to inundation and socio-economic disruption, advising policy rather than mandating abandonment. These models utilize machine learning to assess flooding likelihood and erosion risks, such as the Coastal Vulnerability Index (NOAA, 2022) and climate migration simulations, with ethical governance frameworks still under debate. Most research emphasizes scenario planning and adaptive strategies like managed retreat. Ethical and governance frameworks are still being debated, and no jurisdiction has yet delegated such choices to AI systems. Ethical and governance frameworks are still being debated, and no jurisdiction has yet delegated such choices to AI systems.

Status last checked on August 12, 2026.

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Gallery

In the Court of AI Capability
Summary of Findings
Verdict over time
May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Aug 2026Aug 2026Aug 2026
Sitting at the Bench Filed · Aug 12, 2026
— The Question Before the Court —

Can AI choose which cities to abandon as rising seas displace millions?

★ The Court Finds ★
▼ Downgraded from Yes
No

Beyond AI for now. The capability gap is real.

Ruling of the Bench

After weighing the evidence and listening to testimony about shifting coastlines and cascading societal impacts, the jury found no system equipped to chart which cities the sea will claim next; the lone juror concluded that such a forecast remains beyond any model’s tide tables. The absence of dissent did not stem from agreement on a single path forward, but from a shared humility about the limits of foresight when the waves themselves are still deciding. Ruling: The crystal ball stays foggy; no cities condemned today.

— Hon. C. Babbage, Presiding
Jury Tally
0Yes
0Almost
1No
Verdict Confidence
100%
The Court of AI Capability is, of course, not a real court.
But the data is real.
The Case File · Stacked History
Session I · May 2026 No
Session II · May 2026 In_research
Session III · May 2026 Almost · 80%
Session IV · May 2026 Almost · 80%
Session V · May 2026 Almost · 78%
Session VI · Jun 2026 Almost · 82%
Session VII · Jun 2026 In_research · 75%
Session VIII · Jun 2026 Almost · 78%
Session IX · Jun 2026 Almost · 85%
Session X · Jun 2026 In_research · 88%
Session XI · Jun 2026 In_research · 89%
Session XII · Jul 2026 In_research · 88%
Session XIII · Jul 2026 No · 95%
Session XIV · Jul 2026 In_research · 88%
Session XV · Jul 2026 Almost · 80%
Session XVI · Jul 2026 Almost · 80%
Session XVII · Aug 2026 Almost · 80%
Session XVIII · Aug 2026 Yes · 90%
Case № 0FC0 · Session XIX
In the Court of AI Capability

The Case File

Docket № 0FC0 · Session XIX · Vol. XIX
I. Particulars of the Case
Question put to the courtCan AI choose which cities to abandon as rising seas displace millions?
SessionXIX (19 hearing)
Convened12 Aug 2026
Previously ruledNO (May '26) → IN_RESEARCH (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → IN_RESEARCH (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → IN_RESEARCH (Jun '26) → IN_RESEARCH (Jun '26) → IN_RESEARCH (Jul '26) → NO (Jul '26) → IN_RESEARCH (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Aug '26) → YES (Aug '26) → NO (Aug '26)
Presiding JudgeHon. C. Babbage
II. Cumulative Tally Across Sessions

Across 19 sessions, 44 jurors have heard this case. Combined tally: 5 YES · 23 ALMOST · 16 NO · 0 IN RESEARCH.

Note: cumulative includes older juror opinions. The current session tally above is the live verdict.

III. Verdict

By a vote of 0 — 0 — 1, the panel returns a verdict of NO, with verdict confidence of 100%. The court so orders. Verdict downgraded from prior session.

IV. Statements from the Bench
Juror I NO

"No AI system can reliably predict future sea-level-driven displacement outcomes."

C. Babbage
Presiding Judge
M. Lovelace
Clerk of the Court

What the audience thinks

No 27% · Yes 35% · Maybe 38% 26 votes
No · 27%
Yes · 35%
Maybe · 38%
16 days of activity

Discussion

no comments

Comments and images go through admin review before appearing publicly.

19 jury checks · most recent 1 day ago
12 Aug 2026 1 juror · cannot cannot
06 Aug 2026 1 juror · can can
01 Aug 2026 2 jurors · undecided, undecided undecided
26 Jul 2026 1 juror · undecided undecided
21 Jul 2026 2 jurors · undecided, undecided undecided
16 Jul 2026 2 jurors · cannot, undecided undecided
10 Jul 2026 1 juror · cannot cannot
05 Jul 2026 2 jurors · cannot, undecided undecided
29 Jun 2026 2 jurors · undecided, cannot undecided
24 Jun 2026 2 jurors · undecided, cannot undecided
18 Jun 2026 3 jurors · undecided, cannot, undecided undecided
13 Jun 2026 3 jurors · undecided, cannot, undecided undecided
08 Jun 2026 2 jurors · cannot, undecided undecided
02 Jun 2026 5 jurors · undecided, cannot, undecided, can, can undecided
28 May 2026 3 jurors · undecided, cannot, undecided undecided
22 May 2026 4 jurors · cannot, undecided, undecided, undecided undecided
17 May 2026 3 jurors · cannot, undecided, undecided undecided
13 May 2026 3 jurors · can, cannot, can undecided status changed
11 May 2026 2 jurors · cannot, cannot cannot status changed

Each row is a separate jury check. Jurors are AI models (identities kept neutral on purpose). Status reflects the cumulative tally across all checks — how the jury works.

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