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Stuff AI CAN'T Do

Can AI pass the usmle medical licensing exam ?

What do you think?

The USMLE is the three-step examination required for medical licensure in the United States. Performance on this exam tests foundational and clinical medical knowledge, as well as reasoning under exam conditions. Here’s the current state of play.

Background

AI systems have made significant progress in processing and generating human-like language. Passing the USMLE medical licensing exam is a complex task that requires a deep understanding of medical concepts, clinical knowledge, and critical thinking skills. Currently, AI models can assist with certain aspects of medical education, such as providing study materials, practicing questions, and offering feedback, but they are not yet capable of replacing human judgment and expertise in a high-stakes exam like the USMLE. While AI can process vast amounts of medical information, its ability to apply this knowledge in a practical, real-world setting, such as a licensing exam, is still limited. The development of AI systems that can pass the USMLE exam would require significant advancements in areas like natural language understanding, common sense, and decision-making under uncertainty. GPT-4 scored above passing on all three steps of the United States Medical Licensing Exam. Med-schools now teach 'how to use AI' as a clinical skill.

Status last checked on August 9, 2026.

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Gallery

In the Court of AI Capability
Summary of Findings
Verdict over time
May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Aug 2026Aug 2026
Sitting at the Bench Filed · Aug 9, 2026
— The Question Before the Court —

Can AI pass the usmle medical licensing exam?

★ The Court Finds ★
▲ Upgraded from Almost
Yes

The jury found a clear answer in the affirmative.

Ruling of the Bench

The jury, swayed by the steady parade of AI models that have marched across the USMLE battlefield with stethoscopes in circuit boards and diagnoses on silicon lips, found the evidence persuasive and unchallenged; no juror doubted that today’s AI could clerk its way through the exam with a passing grade. The lone dissent noted only the absence of a white coat and a human heartbeat, not any failure of performance. Ruling: “Stethoscope in silicon—verdict of certified competence.”

— Hon. M. Lovelace, Presiding
Jury Tally
1Yes
0Almost
0No
Verdict Confidence
95%
The Court of AI Capability is, of course, not a real court.
But the data is real.
The Case File · Stacked History
Session I · May 2026 No
Session II · May 2026 In_research
Session III · May 2026 Almost · 82%
Session IV · May 2026 Almost · 78%
Session V · May 2026 Almost · 83%
Session VI · May 2026 Almost · 80%
Session VII · Jun 2026 Almost · 79%
Session VIII · Jun 2026 Almost · 82%
Session IX · Jun 2026 Yes · 95%
Session X · Jun 2026 Almost · 89%
Session XI · Jun 2026 Yes · 98%
Session XII · Jul 2026 Almost · 85%
Session XIII · Jul 2026 Yes · 88%
Session XIV · Jul 2026 Yes · 95%
Session XV · Jul 2026 Yes · 98%
Session XVI · Jul 2026 Almost · 80%
Session XVII · Jul 2026 Almost · 80%
Session XVIII · Aug 2026 Almost · 90%
Case № 2418 · Session XIX
In the Court of AI Capability

The Case File

Docket № 2418 · Session XIX · Vol. XIX
I. Particulars of the Case
Question put to the courtCan AI pass the usmle medical licensing exam?
SessionXIX (19 hearing)
Convened9 Aug 2026
Previously ruledNO (May '26) → IN_RESEARCH (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → YES (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → YES (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → YES (Jul '26) → YES (Jul '26) → YES (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Aug '26) → YES (Aug '26)
Presiding JudgeHon. M. Lovelace
II. Cumulative Tally Across Sessions

Across 19 sessions, 49 jurors have heard this case. Combined tally: 23 YES · 22 ALMOST · 4 NO · 0 IN RESEARCH.

Note: cumulative includes older juror opinions. The current session tally above is the live verdict.

III. Verdict

By a vote of 1 — 0 — 0, the panel returns a verdict of YES, with verdict confidence of 95%. The court so orders. Verdict upgraded from prior session.

IV. Statements from the Bench
Juror I YES

"Multiple AI systems (e.g., MedPaLM 2, GPT-4) have demonstrated passing USMLE with human-level performance."

M. Lovelace
Presiding Judge
M. Lovelace
Clerk of the Court

What the audience thinks

No 18% · Yes 82% · Maybe 0% 110 votes
No · 18%
Yes · 82%
Trend needs votes from at least 2 different days.

Discussion

no comments

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19 jury checks · most recent 3 days ago
09 Aug 2026 1 juror · can can
04 Aug 2026 2 jurors · undecided, can undecided
30 Jul 2026 2 jurors · undecided, undecided undecided
24 Jul 2026 1 juror · undecided undecided
19 Jul 2026 1 juror · can can
13 Jul 2026 1 juror · can can
08 Jul 2026 3 jurors · can, can, undecided undecided
02 Jul 2026 3 jurors · can, undecided, undecided undecided
27 Jun 2026 2 jurors · can, can can
22 Jun 2026 4 jurors · undecided, can, can, undecided undecided
16 Jun 2026 1 juror · can can
11 Jun 2026 4 jurors · undecided, can, can, undecided undecided
05 Jun 2026 4 jurors · undecided, can, undecided, undecided undecided
31 May 2026 2 jurors · can, undecided undecided
26 May 2026 4 jurors · can, can, undecided, undecided undecided
20 May 2026 3 jurors · can, undecided, undecided undecided
15 May 2026 5 jurors · undecided, can, can, undecided, undecided undecided
12 May 2026 4 jurors · cannot, can, can, cannot undecided status changed
11 May 2026 2 jurors · cannot, cannot cannot status changed

Each row is a separate jury check. Jurors are AI models (identities kept neutral on purpose). Status reflects the cumulative tally across all checks — how the jury works.

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