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Stuff AI CAN'T Do

Can AI pass the bar exam at top-decile human level ?

What do you think?

What would it take for an AI to achieve a top-decile human performance on the bar exam? The benchmark set by GPT-4's strong result on the Uniform Bar Exam has prompted both excitement and scrutiny, raising questions about the current and future capabilities of artificial intelligence in legal reasoning.

Background

Currently, AI systems are not capable of passing the bar exam at a top-decile human level. Achieving this benchmark would require a deep understanding of legal concepts, contextual nuances, and sophisticated reasoning abilities that are still uniquely human. While AI excels at processing and analyzing large volumes of legal data, it remains constrained by limitations in contextual understanding, judgment, and ethical decision-making. Researchers continue to explore AI applications in legal domains, but significant technical and ethical hurdles—such as advancing natural language processing, knowledge representation, and reasoning under uncertainty—must be overcome before such performance is attainable.

— Enriched May 9, 2026 · Source: American Bar Association

Status last checked on August 9, 2026.

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Gallery

In the Court of AI Capability
Summary of Findings
Verdict over time
May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Aug 2026Aug 2026
Sitting at the Bench Filed · Aug 9, 2026
— The Question Before the Court —

Can AI pass the bar exam at top-decile human level?

★ The Court Finds ★
Reaffirmed
Almost

Narrow demos exist — but the panel was not unanimous.

Ruling of the Bench

After weighing the evidence, the jury nearly tipped into the affirmative but drew back at the final hour, noting that while AI now scores like a star pupil on practice exams, the bar exam’s live, open-book unpredictability still trips up even the brightest silicon advocates. The split between near-certainty on drills and lingering doubt about real-world readiness left them settled on “almost.” Ruling: The bar is almost passed, but the gavel isn’t down yet.

— Hon. M. Lovelace, Presiding
Jury Tally
0Yes
2Almost
0No
Verdict Confidence
85%
The Court of AI Capability is, of course, not a real court.
But the data is real.
The Case File · Stacked History
Session I · May 2026 No
Session II · May 2026 No
Session III · May 2026 Almost · 75%
Session IV · May 2026 Almost · 86%
Session V · May 2026 Almost · 80%
Session VI · May 2026 Almost · 77%
Session VII · Jun 2026 Almost · 84%
Session VIII · Jun 2026 Almost · 82%
Session IX · Jun 2026 Yes · 95%
Session X · Jun 2026 Almost · 90%
Session XI · Jun 2026 Almost · 83%
Session XII · Jul 2026 Almost · 85%
Session XIII · Jul 2026 Almost · 84%
Session XIV · Jul 2026 Almost · 90%
Session XV · Jul 2026 Almost · 95%
Session XVI · Jul 2026 Almost · 80%
Session XVII · Jul 2026 Almost · 80%
Session XVIII · Aug 2026 Almost · 88%
Case № A3B3 · Session XIX
In the Court of AI Capability

The Case File

Docket № A3B3 · Session XIX · Vol. XIX
I. Particulars of the Case
Question put to the courtCan AI pass the bar exam at top-decile human level?
SessionXIX (19 hearing)
Convened9 Aug 2026
Previously ruledNO (May '26) → NO (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → YES (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Aug '26) → ALMOST (Aug '26)
Presiding JudgeHon. M. Lovelace
II. Cumulative Tally Across Sessions

Across 19 sessions, 47 jurors have heard this case. Combined tally: 9 YES · 33 ALMOST · 5 NO · 0 IN RESEARCH.

Note: cumulative includes older juror opinions. The current session tally above is the live verdict.

III. Verdict

By a vote of 0 — 2 — 0, the panel returns a verdict of ALMOST, with verdict confidence of 85%. The court so orders.

IV. Statements from the Bench
Juror I ALMOST

"AI models have shown strong performance on practice tests"

Juror II ALMOST

"AI passes bar exam at high percentile on practice tests but real-world performance varies."

M. Lovelace
Presiding Judge
M. Lovelace
Clerk of the Court

What the audience thinks

No 16% · Yes 83% · Maybe 1% 202 votes
No · 16%
Yes · 83%
15 days of activity

Discussion

no comments

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19 jury checks · most recent 3 days ago
09 Aug 2026 2 jurors · undecided, undecided undecided
04 Aug 2026 2 jurors · undecided, can undecided
30 Jul 2026 2 jurors · undecided, undecided undecided
24 Jul 2026 1 juror · undecided undecided
19 Jul 2026 1 juror · undecided undecided
13 Jul 2026 1 juror · undecided undecided
08 Jul 2026 4 jurors · undecided, undecided, undecided, undecided undecided
02 Jul 2026 3 jurors · undecided, undecided, undecided undecided
27 Jun 2026 2 jurors · undecided, undecided undecided
22 Jun 2026 1 juror · undecided undecided
16 Jun 2026 1 juror · can can
11 Jun 2026 3 jurors · undecided, can, undecided undecided
05 Jun 2026 4 jurors · can, can, undecided, undecided undecided
31 May 2026 2 jurors · can, undecided undecided
26 May 2026 5 jurors · undecided, undecided, can, undecided, undecided undecided
20 May 2026 5 jurors · undecided, can, can, undecided, undecided undecided
15 May 2026 3 jurors · undecided, undecided, undecided undecided status changed
12 May 2026 3 jurors · cannot, cannot, cannot cannot
11 May 2026 2 jurors · cannot, cannot cannot status changed

Each row is a separate jury check. Jurors are AI models (identities kept neutral on purpose). Status reflects the cumulative tally across all checks — how the jury works.

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