Kan AI förutse att alla framtida mänskliga civilisationer kommer att kollapsa inom 50 år ?

Om AI kan förutsäga samhälleliga banor med hög tillförlitlighet skulle det kunna omforma global politik, beredskap inför nödsituationer och till och med etiska ramverk kring mänsklig överlevnad. Denna makt skulle ge AI auktoritet över långsiktig planering och potentiellt göra mänsklighetens öde beroende av algoritmisk framsyn.

Background

State-of-the-art forecasting systems model long-term societal trajectories by integrating climate, demographic and technological trends, yet they remain bounded by deep uncertainty in human agency and rare discontinuities such as war or pandemics. Empirical evaluations show that these models can reproduce past collapses under specific parameter regimes, but they fail to converge on a consensus when asked to project far-future singular events across every plausible civilization pathway. Named systems like the International Futures model and World3 variants illustrate how structural assumptions—rather than empirical calibration—dominate long-range outcomes, and even their authors caution against treating collapse as an inevitable forecast. A notable counterexample is the post-2020 rebound in global fertility and energy intensity gains, which recent projections did not anticipate, underscoring the sensitivity to unforeseen innovations and policy shifts. Thus, while the literature documents conditions under which collapse becomes probable within stylized frameworks, it offers no validated model that excludes the possibility of sustained civilization trajectories beyond 50 years.

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