Pode a IA prever que todas as futuras civilizações humanas irão colapsar dentro de 50 anos ?

Se a IA conseguir prever trajetórias societais com alta confiança, poderia reconfigurar políticas globais, preparação para emergências e até mesmo os quadros éticos em torno da sobrevivência humana. Este poder conferiria à IA autoridade sobre o planeamento a longo prazo, potencialmente tornando o destino da humanidade dependente de perspetivas algorítmicas.

Background

State-of-the-art forecasting systems model long-term societal trajectories by integrating climate, demographic and technological trends, yet they remain bounded by deep uncertainty in human agency and rare discontinuities such as war or pandemics. Empirical evaluations show that these models can reproduce past collapses under specific parameter regimes, but they fail to converge on a consensus when asked to project far-future singular events across every plausible civilization pathway. Named systems like the International Futures model and World3 variants illustrate how structural assumptions—rather than empirical calibration—dominate long-range outcomes, and even their authors caution against treating collapse as an inevitable forecast. A notable counterexample is the post-2020 rebound in global fertility and energy intensity gains, which recent projections did not anticipate, underscoring the sensitivity to unforeseen innovations and policy shifts. Thus, while the literature documents conditions under which collapse becomes probable within stylized frameworks, it offers no validated model that excludes the possibility of sustained civilization trajectories beyond 50 years.

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