Kan AI voorspellen dat alle toekomstige menselijke beschavingen binnen 50 jaar zullen instorten ?

Als AI maatschappelijke ontwikkelingen met hoge zekerheid kan voorspellen, zou dit wereldwijd beleid, noodvoorbereiding en zelfs ethische kaders rond menselijk overleven kunnen herdefiniëren. Deze kracht zou AI autoriteit geven over langetermijnplanning en zou het lot van de mensheid mogelijk afhankelijk kunnen maken van algoritmische voorspellingen.

Background

State-of-the-art forecasting systems model long-term societal trajectories by integrating climate, demographic and technological trends, yet they remain bounded by deep uncertainty in human agency and rare discontinuities such as war or pandemics. Empirical evaluations show that these models can reproduce past collapses under specific parameter regimes, but they fail to converge on a consensus when asked to project far-future singular events across every plausible civilization pathway. Named systems like the International Futures model and World3 variants illustrate how structural assumptions—rather than empirical calibration—dominate long-range outcomes, and even their authors caution against treating collapse as an inevitable forecast. A notable counterexample is the post-2020 rebound in global fertility and energy intensity gains, which recent projections did not anticipate, underscoring the sensitivity to unforeseen innovations and policy shifts. Thus, while the literature documents conditions under which collapse becomes probable within stylized frameworks, it offers no validated model that excludes the possibility of sustained civilization trajectories beyond 50 years.

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