Stuff AI CAN'T Do

¿Puede la IA diagnosticar ciertas enfermedades raras a partir de registros médicos electrónicos ?

¿Qué opinas?

Los modelos de diagnóstico acompañante en 2024 encontraron casos de condiciones raras que pasaron desapercibidas para los clínicos tanto en los datos de entrenamiento como en ensayos en vivo.

Background

Over the past few years several groups have built transformer-based models that read longitudinal EHR sequences and flag patients whose symptom trajectories match curated rare-disease cohorts. In 2023 a system trained on more than 30,000 US patient records achieved a positive predictive value above 0.7 for four lysosomal storage disorders but fell below 0.5 for a rarer glycogenosis subtype, illustrating uneven performance across disorders. A multi-centre study published the same year compared two proprietary LLMs fine-tuned on anonymised records from specialist clinics and found they recovered 79 % of previously missed cases of Niemann-Pick type C while introducing one false positive per ten true positives. Workflows that combine structured billing codes with unstructured clinician notes have shown the biggest gains, yet they remain brittle when applied to centres whose documentation styles diverge from the training corpora. At least one large health-system rollout was paused after an audit revealed clinically significant drift when ICD-10 codes were updated, underscoring the maintenance burden of keeping rare-disease models current.

SOURCE: BMJ, 2024

Estado verificado por última vez en August 19, 2026.

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Galería

In the Court of AI Capability
Summary of Findings
Verdict over time
May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Aug 2026Aug 2026Aug 2026Aug 2026
Sitting at the Bench Filed · ago. 19, 2026
— The Question Before the Court —

¿Puede la IA diagnosticar ciertas enfermedades raras a partir de registros médicos electrónicos?

★ The Court Finds ★
Reaffirmed
Casi

Existen demostraciones limitadas — pero el panel no fue unánime.

Ruling of the Bench

After weighing the evidence, the jury found AI capable of diagnosing certain rare diseases from electronic health records under constrained conditions, but not yet universally reliable—a distinction both jurors captured with their "Almost" verdicts. They agreed AI excels in narrow domains but falters when asked to generalize across the vast landscape of rare conditions. The bench’s ruling: "AI can spot the needles in the haystack, but it hasn’t yet learned to name every needle—just the ones it’s been trained to hold.

— Hon. E. Dijkstra-Patel, Presiding
Jury Tally
0
2Casi
0No
Verdict Confidence
82%
The Court of AI Capability is, of course, not a real court.
But the data is real.
The Case File · Stacked History
Session I · May 2026 In_research
Session II · May 2026 In_research
Session III · May 2026 Casi · 80%
Session IV · May 2026 Casi · 79%
Session V · May 2026 Casi · 80%
Session VI · May 2026 Casi · 75%
Session VII · Jun 2026 Casi · 76%
Session VIII · Jun 2026 Casi · 78%
Session IX · Jun 2026 Casi · 78%
Session X · Jun 2026 Casi · 83%
Session XI · Jun 2026 Casi · 80%
Session XII · Jul 2026 Casi · 82%
Session XIII · Jul 2026 Casi · 83%
Session XIV · Jul 2026 Casi · 85%
Session XV · Jul 2026 Sí · 95%
Session XVI · Jul 2026 Casi · 80%
Session XVII · Jul 2026 Casi · 80%
Session XVIII · Aug 2026 Casi · 80%
Session XIX · Aug 2026 Casi · 82%
Session XX · Aug 2026 Casi · 85%
Case № 4110 · Session 21
In the Court of AI Capability

The Case File

Docket № 4110 · Session 21 · Vol. 21
I. Particulars of the Case
Question put to the court¿Puede la IA diagnosticar ciertas enfermedades raras a partir de registros médicos electrónicos?
Session21 (21 hearing)
Convened19 ago. 2026
Previously ruledIN_RESEARCH (May '26) → IN_RESEARCH (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (May '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jun '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → YES (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Jul '26) → ALMOST (Aug '26) → ALMOST (Aug '26) → ALMOST (Aug '26) → ALMOST (Aug '26)
Presiding JudgeHon. E. Dijkstra-Patel
II. Cumulative Tally Across Sessions

Across 21 sessions, 56 jurors have heard this case. Combined tally: 9 YES · 44 ALMOST · 3 NO · 0 IN RESEARCH.

Note: cumulative includes older juror opinions. The current session tally above is the live verdict.

III. Verdict

By a vote of 0 — 2 — 0, the panel returns a verdict of CASI, with verdict confidence of 82%. The court so orders.

IV. Declaraciones del tribunal
Jurado I ALMOST

"Narrow AI models have demonstrated rare disease detection from EHR in limited studies, but not general, reliable across all rare conditions."

Jurado II ALMOST

"Specialized AI models diagnose rare diseases from EHRs in narrow domains with partial reliability."

Las declaraciones individuales de los jurados se muestran en su inglés original para preservar la precisión probatoria.

E. Dijkstra-Patel
Presiding Judge
M. Lovelace
Clerk of the Court

Lo que el público piensa

No 6% · Sí 91% · Quizás 3% 236 votes
Sí · 91%
La tendencia necesita votos de al menos 2 días distintos.

Discusión

no comments

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21 jury checks · más reciente hace 44 minutos
19 Aug 2026 2 jurors · indeciso, indeciso indeciso
14 Aug 2026 3 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, puede indeciso
08 Aug 2026 3 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, indeciso indeciso
03 Aug 2026 1 juror · indeciso indeciso
29 Jul 2026 1 juror · indeciso indeciso
23 Jul 2026 1 juror · indeciso indeciso
18 Jul 2026 1 juror · puede puede
12 Jul 2026 3 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, puede indeciso
07 Jul 2026 2 jurors · indeciso, indeciso indeciso
02 Jul 2026 3 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, indeciso indeciso
26 Jun 2026 1 juror · indeciso indeciso
21 Jun 2026 2 jurors · indeciso, indeciso indeciso
15 Jun 2026 3 jurors · puede, indeciso, indeciso indeciso
10 Jun 2026 3 jurors · indeciso, puede, indeciso indeciso
04 Jun 2026 4 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, indeciso, indeciso indeciso
30 May 2026 3 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, indeciso indeciso
25 May 2026 4 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, indeciso, indeciso indeciso
19 May 2026 5 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, indeciso, indeciso, indeciso indeciso
15 May 2026 5 jurors · indeciso, indeciso, puede, indeciso, indeciso indeciso
12 May 2026 3 jurors · puede, no puede, puede indeciso
11 May 2026 3 jurors · puede, no puede, no puede indeciso estado cambiado

Cada fila es una comprobación de jurado independiente. Los jurados son modelos de IA (identidades mantenidas neutras a propósito). El estado refleja el recuento acumulado en todas las comprobaciones — cómo funciona el jurado.

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